Published on February 9th, 2013 | by Paul K3
Little Acorns – Beta Tester Review
Little Acorns – Beta Tester Review
By Paul K
An acorn takes about eight months to grow into a sapling, many years more to become an oak tree. Is this an indication of the likely profit growth of a lay-betting system called Little Acorns?
Little Acorns arrives as a PDF manual of twenty-four pages. The system is based on the observation that favourites don’t always win, and the reasonable assumption that this state of affairs will continue in the future.
The selection process is simplicity itself: log on to Betfair and click on the first of the day’s races. The best time to do this according to Andrew David, the creator of Little Acorns, is 10am, when the markets have had a chance to form.
You simply apply the formula and if the race qualifies, place your lay bet and then move on to the next race.
During the three months of testing I found 20 bets on the first check through the cards. However, Andrew recommends that during this initial search you should also note down races which are close to qualifying, and check these during the fifteen minutes before the off. By doing just that I found an additional 89 bets!
So the obvious question is: Is it worth it and can you make a profit?
The answer is: Yes, very much so, especially if you follow the right staking plan.
How does the staking plan work?
Much of the manual describes the three staking plans you can use with this system. The simplest – Staking Plan C – is (simply) betting one point level stakes.
This is a very low risk strategy, with an advised bank of twenty points and according to Andrew, by following this a profit of between two and five points can be made every month. This claim is based on a strike rate of 51% and a certain average lay price. This is how my bank shaped up during the test:
As you can see, the expected profit of between six and fifteen points over three months was not quite realized and this was due to two key factors. During testing the strike rate I managed to achieve was just over 8% lower and the average price I laid was around 5% higher. Even though these amounts are small they weren’t, when combined, insignificant and for that reason I probably wouldn’t advise following this staking plan.
Another staking plan – Staking Plan B requires a bank of 150 points and the method is to bet one point stakes until there is a loss. You then add the loss to the one point of the next bet to determine the new stake. This is known as loss recovery staking and the danger with this plan is that with a long losing run, the stakes will become uncomfortably high.
The longest losing run that I experienced during this test was five and the stake for the sixth bet was 17.76 points. Staking Plan B is a little riskier and the stakes could get quite high if you were to hit a particularly long losing run. For example if you were to get to 8 losing bets, on the 9th you’d be staking nearly £300 (at £2 stakes). I should emphasise that this never happened during my test! However, if you choose this plan you should, I think, be aware of the possible pitfalls.
Even though this plan carries a larger risk, it managed to provide a profit of 42.26 points over the ninety-one days of testing and the bank was never lower than 142 points. This, by any measure is a substantial profit.
Staking Plan A is also a loss recovery method and this one follows the Fibonacci sequence –
1 1 2 3 5 8 13 21. So as before, one point stakes until you get a loser, whereupon your stake is the next number in the list. After each loser you move up, after a winner you drop back to the start.
This plan uses an advised 147 point bank and the reason this is larger than that for Plan B is that it recovers losses more slowly, because if you get a loss with a twenty-one point stake, you’re directed to revert back to the beginning with one point.
A profit of 13.71 points was the result here but this can be quite dramatically improved by adopting a slightly more aggressive approach and dropping the second “1” at the beginning of the sequence and moving straight on to the “2”. By staking two points after the first losing bet I made a total profit of 23.06 points, and the largest stake was a fairly comfortable 13 points.
There is, however, an even more profitable method…
When you read the manual, it becomes evident that Andrew David has put a lot of work in to his system.
However I actually found that by adapting it slightly and using a more conventional application of the Fibonacci sequence as a staking plan it was even more effective. I’ll explain what I mean by that. When you have a winner after a losing sequence you go back only two steps, not drop back to the start. Utilizing this method, the profit was a staggering 53.58 points and the largest stake was again 13 points.
So if you’re still reading, it’s time for a summary.
This system can take up a bit of your time and if you can’t pay some attention to Betfair during the working day then this is not for you. You could, though, have a lot of fun with it at the weekends or on your days off.
There is no doubt that if you adopt a loss recovery staking plan, you will make a profit with this system. You will need to decide for yourself a stake you are comfortable with and then go on one bet at a time.
You can try Little Acorns risk free for 30 days here: